If I Had $1,000 and Zero Responsibilities: Prop Bets and Super Bowl LI Predictions 1


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Joe Buck Could Take Down Vegas 

One of my favorite podcasts of the year is when Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal go over the Super Bowl prop bets on The Ringer’s Bill Simmons Podcast.1)formerly the B.S. Report If you have listened to this special edition of the podcast before then you know the props podcast has the power to bring families together and unite life-long friendships. If you’re single, the prop pod has even delivered hope to those looking to meet their soulmate.

 

Like I’ve mentioned before, I love poker, but I’m not much of a sports gambler. Really, I just like some of the unique things that happen when you are aware of the gambling implications of a game, especially when you have a broadcast crew that knows Vegas as much as anyone. I’ve never actually placed a bet on a prop, but I enjoy scoping out all the quirky things sports books come up with the sucker people out of their money.2)This year, I pulled all my prop bets from Bovada.lv.

 

Whether you gamble or not, prop bets are just a fun way to enjoy the festivities of Super Bowl Sunday, especially if your team is one of the 30 teams that’s already been ousted. As an example, in 2012, the entire country watched and waited for Henry Hynoski to get over 4.5 receiving yards in the Super Bowl? Who?! Exactly. See, Vegas offered this as a prop bet and Cousin Sal made that his “best bet.” This meant, at least dozens of people enjoyed a good chuckle under their breath when the back up fullback had a single reception for 5 yards. Don’t you want to be part of all that excitement?!

 

All seriousness, the real fun is in bets controlled by a single person that has the choice to pay off a bet or not, literally with the words they speak. There is always a bet about who the MVP will thank first on the podium, his team, family, coach, God, etc. And those are fine, but usually there are some unique happenings in the world around this time and they lend themselves to possibly being mentioned one or multiple times during broadcast. In most cases, Joe Buck holds the keys to just about everyone of these bets. “Houston, we have a problem,” “Trump,” “Deflategate,” and “Gronk” are just a few of terms Joe has at is disposal to help bettors win big or get crushed. If Joe had mafia ties, he’s been granted eternal immunity based on this power alone.

*Now I realize some of you may hate Joe Buck and this would actually be a deterrent since you want to avoid listening to his voice at all costs. For those like me that don’t mind Joe, here’s a pretty fun little article about how aware he is of the power he holds of Vegas.

 

Given props to the props

The color of Gatorade, Lady Gaga’s song choices, Donald Trumps tweeting habits, whether or not Brady is filmed blowing a snot-rocket on the broadcast, and all sorts of other entertaining props are up and ready to help you pull the trigger on that second mortgage. As usual, I’m going to steer clear of betting actual money, but if I had a $1,000 just laying around and zero responsibilities, here’s how I might spend it for tonight’s game:

*If you need a reminder of what a prop is or some other gambling terms, check out my post from last month

 

1. Spread and Over/Under

  • Patriots -3 and Under 58 points, 2 bet parlay, bet $500 to win $1214

 

2. Super Bowl MVP

  • Dion Lewis +1600,3)This can also be read as 16:1 bet $5 to win $80
  • Chris Hogan +2500, bet $5 to win $125
  • Devonta Freeman +1600, $10 to win $160
    • Abs always have a leg up in this this, for obvious reasons. As a result, this isn’t who I think will win the MVP, but rather who I think has the most value in a bet.

25 to 1 on this exact image being shown during the game.

3. Will the word “lacrosse” be said on the broadcast

  • No +300, bet $50 to win $150
    • This is in reference to Chris Hogan and his collegiate endeavors. I’m going “No” because the broadcast crew is well aware of this bet.

 

4. How many times will “deflate” or “deflategate” be said on TV during live broadcast?

  • Under 1.5 times -110, bet $100 to win $90
    • Again, another one Joe Buck is definitely aware of. He will take great pride in either dodging the subject completely or finding creative ways to say it without saying it. Seriously, they know exactly what’s going on. Check out this article.

 

5. Will the Falcons Score in the First Quarter

  • Yes +120, bet $50 to win $60
    • Fully expect the Dirty Birds to come out hot and Pats adjust later

 

6. Exact Margin of Victory

The Falcons backfield is strong. I say they go conservative until they have to air it out.

  • Patriots by 12 points +2500, bet $10 to win $250
  • Patriots by 5 points +2300, bet $10 to win $230
  • Falcons by 5 points +5000, bet $10 to win $500
  • Falcons by 12 points +6600, bet $10 to win $660
    • For whatever reason, 12 and 5 are weird margins of victory, at least according the odds. What a suckers bet:)

7. The First Scoring Play

  • Falcons Rushing TD +600, bet $50 to $300

 

8. How many times will Donald Trump tweet during the game?

  • Under 1.5 times +200, bet $100 to win $200
    • There is a theme here. If I think the person that controls the outcome of a bet is aware of the bet, it’s not gonna happen. You’re telling me Trump doesn’t know about this and he fully anticipates Democrats placing their life savings on this bet?

 

I searched Google Images for hours and this is the closest thing I could fine the Luke Bryan in something other than jeans.

9. What will Luke Bryan be wearing when he starts singing the US National Anthem?

  • Blue Jeans -300, bet $100 to win $30
    • Literally the easiest fake $30 I’ve ever made

 

10. Final Prediction along with stuff I think will happen

  • Falcons jump out to an early lead and hang on to a 3-point lead at half-time
  • Brady throws 2 first half interceptions, but finishes with 4 TDs
  • Julio Jones is a non-factor, in fact, Tevin Coleman will lead the team in receiving yards
  • Pats come out firing in the second half and even score a defensive TD on a Matt Ryan miscue
  • Down by 7, the Falcons will have a chance to tie inside 2 minutes left in the game
  • Too little too late:

          FINAL SCORE: Pats 31 Falcons 24

Footnotes   [ + ]

1. formerly the B.S. Report
2. This year, I pulled all my prop bets from Bovada.lv.
3. This can also be read as 16:1

About Brent Nichols

My blogging is, no doubt, all over the map, but hope you'll find something just right for you. Currently living in the D.C.-metro area in Northern Virginia. You know what? I think I kinda like it out here.


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